Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export ...

Over the past 20 years, the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has fallen substantially. Demand for U.S. debt has partly ...

The SF Fed's Michael Fernandez and Brian Weaver discuss the bank's cash operations with the San Francisco Standard.

This article examines the geographic and policy overlap between Opportunity Zones and the Community Reinvestment Act, ...

According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when ...

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research ...

The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff ...