Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which ...

Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

In FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.” In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...

Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ ...