Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which ...

This is the landing page for QBERT. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and ...

Sunday held as most fans expected: Buffalo continued its dominance into Week 3, maintaining its hold as ELWAY’s #1 team, even though Josh Allen went down with a light knee injury, while Kansas City ...

Democrats have been on incredible upswing over the past month. The entered September with a generic congressional ballot lead of D +6.7. As of today, they’re up to D +9.0. That’s a high point for the ...

Donald Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low of net -23. As of today, his net approval is sitting at -22.7. This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -11.0, while Joe ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...